Answer to Google Query from Los Angeles: What's Wrong with Eric Byrnes?

The cool thing about the Statcounter recommended by Bobby of Deep Fried Fish is that it lets you find out where your visitors come from and why they landed on your site. When the queries come from outside MLB.com, your blog is often not relevant to the query. But sometimes it is. And this morning I found that yesterday someone in Los Angeles landed on my site after making the Google query: What's Wrong with Eric Byrnes?

Before I answer that, some stats are in order: As we enter May, Byrnesie is batting .237, with 1 HR, 1 TR, 3 DB, 5 RBI, 7 R, 1 SB and 0 CS. OBP .318, SLG .373 and OPS .691. Splits provided by Yahoo! show that his batting average is significantly lower against right-handers than lefthanders (.200 v .276) and he's slugging way better against lefties (.483 left v .267 right) but the OBP is about the same (.323 left v .314 right).

I think what is wrong with Eric Byrnes is a confluence of factors:

1) LACK OF CONSISTENT PLAYING TIME:  Byrnesie signed on with the D'Backs with the expectation of being the everyday CF. It hasn't turned out that way. It's important for a baseball manager, as it is important for a manager in any field of endeavor, to recognize what it takes for his player/worker to do his best. There are some players, e.g. Mike Sweeney of the Giants, who are great pinch-hitters. There are some players, e.g. Tony Clark of the Diamondbacks, who are great hitters but not everyday players. There are others who not only want but who need lots of play to be their best. Eric Byrnes is in that last category. But he's not been getting the playing time he expected when he signed. The lack of consistent playing time has kept him from developing the rhythm he needs to be a better hitter.

2) LACK OF IDENTITY AS A CERTAIN TYPE OF HITTER. In one respect, all hitters have the same goals that are summed up in the phrase "Get 'em on; move 'em over; drive 'em in." On the other hand, the different lineup holes have different jobs--though the ones adjacent to each other are similar--and different types of hitters get slotted in certain parts of the lineup; correspondingly, certain hitting styles and roles are expected in certain lineup holes. In the month of April, here is where Byrnesie has been in the lineup. PH means pinch-hitter and 0 means he didn't play at all. (Source: The Eric Byrnes Pitch Count Report):

8, PH, 1, 8, 2, 6, PH, 1, PH, 2, 1, 0, 2, 0, 8, PH, 1, PH, 0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 7, 8.

As you can see, Byrnes had some consecutive non-appearances in the lineup, but, in April, he did not show up in the same spot in the lineup two days in a row.

Now, we know that some of the leadoff spots have been due to injuries to Craig Counsell. Is Byrnesie an 8 or a 2? Would you be looking for the same things from an 8 and a 2, especially in the National League, where there is no DH? Or is he really a 6? A 2 is a table setter, and a 2 can be a 1 when needed, both are table setters. (Three is a transitional position, another table setter for the heart of the order: 4, 5, 6, or someone who can drive 'em in himself. That's why we call 4 the clean-up spot. He is supposed to drive in the runners 3 didn't bring in, or drive in 3 himself).

If you want to emphasize Byrnesie's speed and get him some SB's and R's, you make him a 2 (or 1, if needed due to injury. But let's hope Craig Counsell is past all that now). And you convince Byrnes that walking is a good thing. For April, his K/BB was 1.43. Not quite the 1.00 I want to see, but better than the 2.00 that is typical for him.

If you want to emphasize the pop in his bat, he's better off as a 6 in the D'Backs lineup, or 7 at the very least. But he's only been 6th once and 7th once. The jumping all over the lineup that we have seen in April, together with the platooning, are not going to help Byrnesie achieve the consistency he needs, especially against right-handers.

MANAGERIAL EXPECTATIONS: The platooning and batting 8th against right-handers is the sign that D'Backs manager Bob Melvin expects little of Byrnesie against righties and Byrnesie is meeting the low expectations. Not deliberately, of course. Eric Byrnes always gives his all, which is why I think he's so cool. He's not lackadaisical. He doesn't nonchalant, He doesn't "not care" when the game has a lopsided score. But the human mind is an odd thing. Something in the subconscious makes it turn in the expected results, whatever those results are. When the expectations are high, and when the moral and practical support to meet those expectations are there, the chances for success are higher than when expectations are low and when moral and practical support are lacking. That's why things like a large and supportive fan base and team cohesion are critical to winning. Those of you who are teachers know best what I mean; you have seen students match expectations, high or low, in your classrooms and school districts.

Expectations do need to be realistic. I don't expect Eric Byrnes to be Albert Pujols. But what are the effects of being always surrounded by certain negative expectations? Can you say self-fulfilling prophecy? I know you can.

Melvin has not shown much faith in Byrnes, even though he had a good Spring Training. Eric went 3-5 against all righties on Opening Day and was benched in Game Two. He was the only "regular" not to start the home opener. In the National League, which does not have the DH, 8th is a spot for a hitter you consider to be weak. Byrnes finds himself there against the right-handers, when he isn't being benched. What does the consistent message of "I don't think you can hit right-handers and I'm going to bench you or bat you in front of the pitcher against them" say to that subconscious part of Byrnes' brain that meets the expectations set for him?

And is that part of his brain fighting with the part of him that is over-trying in an effort to prove himself to be better than a lot of people, including Melvin, think? He's had a lot of pop-ups, 11 by my count. While the quality of the pitch has a bearing on the result of a plate appearance, I often see Eric putting too much uppercut in his swing when he pops up. Since he has a reputation for pop in his bat, is he trying, deliberately or subconsciously, to swing for the fence in order to prove himself worthy of being an everyday player? I don't know. All I know is that a single is better than a pop up. But if Byrnes thinks the high-side expectation for him is another 20-homer season, and he tries deliberately for the fence by swinging with too much uppercut, we are going to see a lot of pop-ups. His best hitting is done with a level swing where the uppercut comes late in the follow-through. A wonderful example of that is the homer he hit on April 17th. Check out the top play archive for that day, especially the side view of the Byrnes homer. Golly, I watched the replay of that 6 times before I absolutely HAD to leave the computer. Poetry in motion!

ADJUSTMENT TIME: Eric's in a new league, with new umpires and a group of pitchers against which he has little or no experience. He needs some time to adjust, and he is making some adjustments. He doesn't lunge for pitches as often as he did last year. There are still some adjustments I would like to see him make, but the elimination of the lunging is itself significant. It's still early in the season. Give him more time to get settled, all the more so because he doesn't have a consistent place in the lineup, and that complicates matters.

LACK OF OPPORTUNITY, THE EFFECT OF TEAM PERFORMANCE, AND BAD LUCK:  Yes, Eric's stats are not what we would have hoped. But he can't drive in runs, except by homer, when the bases are empty. Consider that he has led off an inning 17 times. The bases were empty when he came to the plate an additional 20 times, either because someone had cleared the bases ahead of him, or because no one got on ahead of him. On another 13 occasions, there was only a runner on first. So he's had bases empty or a runner only on first for 50 of 66 plate appearances; that's 76% of the time. (Source: The Eric Byrnes Pitch Count Report). While admittedly he has not done well in the crucial category of 2-out RBIs with runners in scoring position, part of the reason the overall RBI total is so low is because the opportunity to drive in runs has been so low.

Byrnes would have a few more RBIs but for a ground-rule double that kept the runner at third, and several great catches made against him, most recently, the catch that Randy Winn of the Giants made against him on April 29th. It be's that way sometimes. We can only hope that the luck will change.

The same for runs scored. According to my Eric Byrnes Pitch Count Reports, he was on base 21 times in April: 1 TR, 3 DB, 9 SG, 7 BB and 1 FC. His 7 runs scored mean he's been stranded two-thirds of the time. This is another situation where batting 8th doesn't help. (A tip of the cap to pitcher Brandon Webb, whose sac fly yesterday drove Byrnesie home after he had tripled in Johnny Estrada).

Here's hoping for a better May for Eric Byrnes!

Kellia "I call 'em like I see 'em" Ramares
Oakland, CA